Its not always about the high yield in Betting. Its very nice to get 30% yield in a year, but when you only have 4 picks a month you don’t make much profit. So its important to balance your strategy .If you are also capable of finding picks with lower expectation, you make much more money in the end. Ok normally you have a lower yield, but that’s very logical because you are taking small edges. The best way to see if the lose approach style is working, is to calculate them separate from your "Strong" plays. So you can see how much yield the strong plays, and how much the other games have. If you make 5 % with your less stronger plays, but you have 6 “Weak” plays and one strong play a week, you double your income. The only problem is that you can’t show other people your 30% yield. But in this world it’s about making profit not making the highest yield.
My experience is that you end in most cases higher if someone who is tight and often right losing up hes picks. Ofcource don’t pick every match in the league, but think carefully about the odds, and what odds you want to have for a team. Maybe you could play like a bookmaker and make your own lines. When the odds are out you have a good view of the Differences between your odds and the bookies odds. And can adjust your picks. Maybee you didn’t see it right, or maybe they didn’t see it right. Search for what you didn’t see or they didn’t see.
Ok this strategy don’t works for everyone. But I believe that people who make 30% with tight picks can also make money with playing the a bit more insecure matches. There is a gap of 30% there so there must be some value between the 30% and losing.

Sometimes I really don’t know what to expect about two teams, who is better why they have an edge etc. Mostly I don’t play them because i just don’t know. Sometimes if I can’t find a favorite and the line is +0,25 for a team and the odds are around even money, than it must be value to take that. I know most ins and outs in my leagues, I watch every game, and even if I miss something, than still is that +0,25 just too much.
Believe is key. If you believe you have edge and you can’t find a reason for the higher odds just play them. Or if you are still to insecure to play them, just look at the gap between your odds and the bookies odds. Take 5% off and ifthe bookies odds are still above your break even odds, just play them.
Its in betting not about picking winners it’s about picking value. Sure you want to give people no losing tips, and maybe that’s why you’re tighten up. But if the one that takes the odds is very seriously with betting, het also understands that value is everything. And as long as you have a good bankroll management you can handle the losing games. Ok if you don’t have a bankroll than the tight approach is maybe best, but otherwise, just take the value and wait a few months for the good results. Not look at it tomorrow but wait a few months, after a lot of picks.

Good Luck,

posted it twice because i pressed the button twice, i only count one